I see a significant downturn in the economy but a bigger surge coming out of it by August.
I'm not so sure about a surge in 2020. My thought is people are not being able to save up during this downturn because they aren't needed at work (hourly folk in service and manufacturing) or can't work due to closures, so they will not go out to buy stuff like crazy after the social distancing is over since they don't have money to spend. In this situation, real productivity is taking a direct hit. I have proven repeatedly to not be able to predict the market, so it's likely I'm wrong (I sincerely hope so).
I am curious as to what makes you think there will be surge in the economy by August? Intuition, #thoughtsandprayers, experience, or ???
I think everyone is overreacting, including myself; We are giving up 'living' to extend some lives.