Georgia Trail Riders Forum
MEMBERS DISCUSSION AREA => General Discussion => Topic started by: DOUG on September 05, 2017, 01:02:35 PM
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Irma spun into a monster storm Tuesday morning with sustained winds topping 180 mph,
becoming the strongest Atlantic hurricane ever recorded outside the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean,
National Hurricane Center forecasters said in their 11 a.m. advisory.
As the hurricane churns closer to the U.S. coast,
its path becomes more certain, with South Florida,
particularly the Keys, increasingly likely to take a hit.
Tropical storm force winds could arrive as early as Friday. Gov. Rick Scott
has declared a state of emergency for all 67 counties and
will spend much of Tuesday morning in hurricane briefings.
Because Irma is so large, forecasters urged caution in
paying too much attention to its exact track. The storm is
continuing to roll west at 14 mph, with winds expected to begin
battering the Leeward Islands today. A powerful high pressure
ridge is steering the storm and will likely stay in place over the
next few days, forecasters said. In five days, a trough moving
across the U.S. should begin weakening the western edge of the ridge,
allowing the storm to slide north.
Where Irma makes the turn will determine impacts to Florida.
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT11/refresh/AL112017_earliest_reasonable_toa_no_wsp_34+png/145233_earliest_reasonable_toa_no_wsp_34.png)
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Now is when we need a dis Like button. I am hoping the trough coming through will spin it back out to sea. I have a lot of family in the Gulf Coast and this one is going to be messy wherever it hits. It may hit Cat 5 when it hits warmer water.
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I'm in the insurance business that insures lots of business's for flood. the one last week hurt but this will be really painful.
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Going to hit Gulches next week probably either way
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My town is going full survival mode. Gas Stations are backed up with cars. Every chain store is out of water, and getting low on non perishable items. My plan is to get off the coast and head to my Gfs condo in Orlando. Still in hurricane projected path but I doubt any serious flooding will be occurring there. Hurricane parties are already being planned
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My town is going full survival mode. Gas Stations are backed up with cars. Every chain store is out of water, and getting low on non perishable items. My plan is to get off the coast and head to my Gfs condo in Orlando. Still in hurricane projected path but I doubt any serious flooding will be occurring there. Hurricane parties are already being planned
Please be careful. keep us posted.
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My town is going full survival mode. Gas Stations are backed up with cars. Every chain store is out of water, and getting low on non perishable items. My plan is to get off the coast and head to my Gfs condo in Orlando. Still in hurricane projected path but I doubt any serious flooding will be occurring there. Hurricane parties are already being planned
Please be careful. keep us posted.
As soon as School cancels I'm outta here
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I'm in the insurance business that insures lots of business's for flood. the one last week hurt but this will be really painful.
Market watch said that the insurance companies have a large surplus of cash and what happened in TX would not even hurt the reserves.
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I'm in the insurance business that insures lots of business's for flood. the one last week hurt but this will be really painful.
Market watch said that the insurance companies have a large surplus of cash and what happened in TX would not even hurt the reserves.
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Well its not only flood, we do D&O and other ., loss of business. so its not as a non-eventful event as others make it to be... this is not, "market watch" this is me looking at the claims coming in. its real. maybe not flood, but alot of other claims related.
True we do have plenty in reserves to handle claims, but it still takes its toll. We paid 911 claims and we had clause's in our policys that a judge ruled we did NOT have to pay, .. yet we had already decided to pay and release funds. no one got bonus or raises for the nxt 4 years. small amount to pay for those that lost so much. not all insurance companys are evil. we do whats right, its just 2 so close togheter, alot of companys dont keep the reserves as they should and it takes its toll. anyway.. the one in FL is expected to be a big one. so .. please leave if u can. no need to have loss of life added to the mix.
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This thing better not ruin my opening day for bow season Sat morning... just sayin. //fu(//
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Looks like a very active hurricane season... Jose out there right behind Irma.
I am hoping because of the devastation Harvey caused they are talking it up worst than it will be.
I have a lot of family in south Florida .. my home town //:'(//
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My town is going full survival mode. Gas Stations are backed up with cars. Every chain store is out of water, and getting low on non perishable items. My plan is to get off the coast and head to my Gfs condo in Orlando. Still in hurricane projected path but I doubt any serious flooding will be occurring there. Hurricane parties are already being planned
Please be careful. keep us posted.
As soon as School cancels I'm outta here
Stay safe. I am hoping they cancel it for the off campus students like me as well.
My cousin lives in Key West and he is evacuating Thursday morning.
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Gusts to 225 wow
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Early morning update (Wednesday) on Powerful Irma.
It is now the strongest landfall Hurricane in Atlantic basin since the great Labor Day hurricane in 1935 (tied) and raked across the tiny island of Barbuda.
Next up, the northern Virgin Islands, and just north of Puerto Rico soon.
It is still a strong CAT 5, with winds 185 mph,and pressure down to 914 mb. I'm interested to see if it hits 900 mb at some point in it's life and think it has a shot of doing so, if it remains north of Puerto Rico, rather than cutting directly over land. We'll see soon.
The tracks are becoming a little more clear, as guidance continues to cluster pretty tightly going forward, but if you are anywhere near it's path, either side of the Florida peninsula, don't let your guard down, but it's looking like less and less of a western side of Florida iimpact, and more and more like it approaches Southeast Florida in a few days.
The track questions grow further out in time obviously so we'll have to take it day by day, but most models are wanting to brush the eastern side of Florida, if not a direct hit, then turn due north up the East Coast (or just off East Coast of Florida)....the track there makes all the difference in the world for what awaits the Carolinas.
If she remains just barely offshore, or emerges quickly offshore after a hit near Miami, then she'll regain powerful CAT 4 or even CAT 5 status once again.
By Sunday, the European and GFS Global models both still have that weak ridge up over Michigan developing, blocking its north move some and forcing it to cut inland pretty quickly somewhere in southern South Carolina.
That kind of track is eerily similar to Hugo, but again, track errors this far out are huge, but overall, nothing much has changed as this has been a good possibility for days now....basically a hit or brush, in Florida,then north turn, then starting to turn back northwest early Next week, slamming the Carolinas, even well inland possibly, with an extremely powerful hurricane.
Again, all of this is still just educated guess work, if that, and hurricanes are notoriously hard to predict, even the best models are fooled many times. Steering flow will be weak in the Eastern US at that time, so where she goes this weekend means a lot as to where she winds up early next week. Its' still possible she makes that north turn just before a Florida impact , and keeps going north, just offshore, and remains offshore for good, but option is still pretty low and I'm getting more nervous of it lurching back inland to the northwest early next week. For now, Florida should be making plans for the arrival first, and pretty soon more of eastern Georgia and much of the Carolinas need to be thinking how they will prepare for the storm , if it comes north and then inland.
I will say that power outages will be to the extreme on this event and very, very widespread, where the center and east of the storm, goes Sunday through early next week. Keep that in mind because a storm of this magnitude will leaves its mark. Since speed is a factor, it doesn't look like tremendous flooding since it's on the move, but to make up for that, it will maintain its high winds much longer, even well inland, wherever it goes, and bring destruction in terms of downed trees and loss of power.
Image below is the newly released Hurricane Guidance Models, the official Track from Hurricane Center and the Satellite.
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I have ridden out a Cat 3 in '79. We were about 4 miles inland. The hotels on the beach had walls and floors missing. Lumber built houses were blown away. The only structures that with stood it on the beach were concrete brick. Our house suffered minor damage to the roof. But we lost our privacy fence and shed. Others lost more.@Jango be careful and be prepared down there. A generator, propane, and gasoline should be at the top of the list.
Personally, I'd load up the girlfriend and bug out to Atlanta. My in-laws were out of power for 4 weeks last time one of these came through Central Florida....that's why they moved to Phoenix, AZ.
The North East side of a Hurricane is always the worst for tornadoes and wind damage, due to rotation.
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No way I would be staying watching this thing build knowing it is headed towards me. The entire storm is bigger than FL right now so everyone will be affected. I would cruise on out now to avoid traffic and issues. Good luck to those who stay!
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Queue up the global warming nutballs.
I talked to my cousin in Daytona this morning. They just bought a new house and moved to Port Orange about 6 miles inland. They've been doing renovations and the hurricane windows actually go in today. I told him to head to Atlanta if they are bugging out. So far they are planning to stay.
There is still a chance this storm turns and hits east of FL. Also hoping Irma and Jose miss the entire east coast. Heading to OBX on 9/30.
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I was heading for global cooling must be happening, since we know global warming couldn't have anything to do with this.
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we know global warming couldn't have anything to do with this.
Global warming and cooling occurs naturally, always has, always will.
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I was heading for global cooling must be happening, since we know global warming couldn't have anything to do with this.
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Global warming is causing all of this! As the polar ice caps melt, the storms will get worse. Just make sure you have emergency supplies and ammo! A tin foil hat will help thwart the mirco waves!
Two things I always remember...
It always looks darkest right before it goes pitch black !
and
Attitude is the difference between ordeal and adventure.
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Go over the Facebook where Trump is causing this Hurrican and is responsible for it.
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Margo and I will be hitting the road tomorrow morning asap. headed home to ATL!
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Margo and I will be hitting the road tomorrow morning asap. headed home to ATL!
Good move. Grab some extra fuel, and be safe.
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Margo and I will be hitting the road tomorrow morning asap. headed home to ATL!
Good move. Grab some extra fuel, and be safe.
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Jackasses in Augusta already running the pumps out.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170907/b30ac06088bfa6c092bcfe6f04a14966.jpg)
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I filled up the car tonight. Mark Levin, a right wing nut on syndicated radio, said he saw scumbags in Florida filling up 55 gallon drums, in addition to topping off their vehicles.
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Nephew and wife from Daytona, sister and brother in law and other nephew from Amelia, and mom from Reidsville all headed this way Friday. Going to be nasty.
I'm headed to the lake Friday to tie things down. Forecast says 40 mph winds.
I have to be in Greenville all next week and it showed 12" of rain there tuesday.
Gulches river will flood next week.
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Just 5 gallon buckets
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170907/3fd5c3255cb2614840137dc4496b423e.jpg)
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Just 5 gallon buckets
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170907/3fd5c3255cb2614840137dc4496b423e.jpg)
nah, I think they're just C cups...they look bigger when she is bent over.
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Just 5 gallon buckets
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170907/3fd5c3255cb2614840137dc4496b423e.jpg)
nah, I think they're just C cups...they look bigger when she is bent over.
One track mind ya got there
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Just 5 gallon buckets
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170907/3fd5c3255cb2614840137dc4496b423e.jpg)
nah, I think they're just C cups...they look bigger when she is bent over.
One track mind ya got there
Personally, he would scare me if he thouht any different. It was the 1st thing i saw to. never noticed the bucket till someone mentioned it.
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I don't see any lids... //LMAO//
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Traffic leaving FL
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170907/6ebdf19924e3c3e3a4006431f00cc9c0.jpg)
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Traffic sucked big donkey balls tonight.
Lots of Florida plates out there... //:o//
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What should be a 7-8 hour drive took 12 hours from Melbourne to Atl. Traffic sucked.
Back and safe tho now. Wishing gulches was this weekend so I could actually make another ride and bring the GF haha.
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What should be a 7-8 hour drive took 12 hours from Melbourne to Atl. Traffic sucked.
Back and safe tho now. Wishing gulches was this weekend so I could actually make another ride and bring the GF haha.
Could be! It's a great weather weekend in Atlanta.
Welcome back.
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What should be a 7-8 hour drive took 12 hours from Melbourne to Atl. Traffic sucked.
Back and safe tho now. Wishing gulches was this weekend so I could actually make another ride and bring the GF haha.
Glad you made the smart move and evacuated Conner
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What should be a 7-8 hour drive took 12 hours from Melbourne to Atl. Traffic sucked.
Back and safe tho now. Wishing gulches was this weekend so I could actually make another ride and bring the GF haha.
Could be! It's a great weather weekend in Atlanta.
Welcome back.
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Thanks!
This was definetly a good move coming back up here.
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Good call coming home.
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Glad you came back. No way I would stay looking down the barrel of that gun.
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Shifted West. Headed more for ATL now, likely to change again.
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They are saying 60 mph winds for Atlanta. I see a bunch of trees coming down.
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Glad you came up here Conner (@Jango) you could always take a day trip to Gulches or Chocco, should be great this weekend.
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I don't need this to come near my place. I have two massive oaks behind the house on a slope... maybe it will shift more west.
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They are saying 60 mph winds for Atlanta. I see a bunch of trees coming down.
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70mph Monday in Augusta, plus 5" of rain during the day. Yesterday was 90mph and 1-2". We're much better equipped to deal with the rain than the strong winds. I'm expecting power loss
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They are saying 60 mph winds for Atlanta. I see a bunch of trees coming down.
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70mph Monday in Augusta, plus 5" of rain during the day. Yesterday was 90mph and 1-2". We're much better equipped to deal with the rain than the strong winds. I'm expecting power loss
That sucks. I am worried about trees falling. I am surrounded by big trees in the woods.
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They are saying 60 mph winds for Atlanta. I see a bunch of trees coming down.
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Yep, today in heading home early and will be using the extra time to clean up anything not tied down around the house.
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Glad you came up here Conner (@Jango) you could always take a day trip to Gulches or Chocco, should be great this weekend.
Gonna try to visit my friend at UNG on Saturday and hit some trails in Dahlonega.
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Glad you came up here Conner (@Jango) you could always take a day trip to Gulches or Chocco, should be great this weekend.
Gonna try to visit my friend at UNG on Saturday and hit some trails in Dahlonega.
Oxymoron
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Power and Wind
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170908/3619d136d7f9ee9913d91d7b7c72c49d.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170908/a1603ed61151477dd1292360c016dd52.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170908/2da186666c84263d062a8131d325ee93.jpg)
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I suspect it will be a bust here and have a minor impact.
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It's still going west and now all our friends and family on the west cost that stayed are in danger and can't leave because there is no gas and gridlock
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170909/3d23719b9b18b72c9b40ebffd0ccce66.jpg)
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Great site: http://www.spaghettimodels.com/
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The European model has won it all. Go figure.
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I have two nephews that live on the coast of SWF. One arrived early this morning and the other with family of 4 plus dog is still on the way. Will feel much better once they get here.
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Lindas dad is on the bay/intercoastal at st pete beach/Seminole and won't leave. Ground level condo. This is not good.
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Lindas dad is on the bay/intercoastal at st pete beach/Seminole and won't leave. Ground level condo. This is not good.
I hope for the best with him....seems like a terrible decision. What is his rationale? Is he friends with folks in the upper levels?
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Massive(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170910/b0e34d8def5b699ddde04b11f55517c6.jpg)
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Lindas dad is on the bay/intercoastal at st pete beach/Seminole and won't leave. Ground level condo. This is not good.
I hope for the best with him....seems like a terrible decision. What is his rationale? Is he friends with folks in the upper levels?
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Only 2 stories. He knows everybody but bad knees and no elevator, would take awhile to get him up there.
Just stubborn and doesn't want to be out of his cave and control. I believe he is going to lose everything, ac, tv, power, furniture, etc.
Looks like the water is going too funnell up on him and be bad
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170910/217934e09724a7e4bf049b252a28c4de.jpg)
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Lindas dad is on the bay/intercoastal at st pete beach/Seminole and won't leave. Ground level condo. This is not good.
I hope for the best with him....seems like a terrible decision. What is his rationale? Is he friends with folks in the upper levels?
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Only 2 stories. He knows everybody but bad knees and no elevator, would take awhile to get him up there.
Just stubborn and doesn't want to be out of his cave and control. I believe he is going to lose everything, ac, tv, power, furniture, etc.
Looks like the water is going too funnell up on him and be bad
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170910/217934e09724a7e4bf049b252a28c4de.jpg)
Prayers for him. bad choice but when you deal with the older folks, and I have been doing that w my inlaws, you have to deal with it.
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Weakening a lot, gleefully will be a non event fur our friends in Bradenton and family in St Pete.
The water is being pulled out of Tampa Bay and folks are out walking in it.
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We're watching it on CNN... they have a reporter in naples and have been live throughout the whole thing, including him standing in the eye. Pretty cool to watch. Waiting for the surge to come in.
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We're watching it on CNN... they have a reporter in naples and have been live throughout the whole thing, including him standing in the eye. Pretty cool to watch. Waiting for the surge to come in.
CNN?
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We're watching it on CNN... they have a reporter in naples and have been live throughout the whole thing, including him standing in the eye. Pretty cool to watch. Waiting for the surge to come in.
CNN?
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I caught that too....fake news being reported there. It's sunny and no rain for days...but CNN is probably showing clouds, rain, and flooding, maybe even strong winds...and blaming global warming for the unprecedented climate events this year...assholes.
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^^^^hahaha could have said it better myself
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But why
https://www.google.com/amp/amp.dailycaller.com/2017/06/01/cnn-cant-crack-top-10-in-cable-news-ratings/
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But why
https://www.google.com/amp/amp.dailycaller.com/2017/06/01/cnn-cant-crack-top-10-in-cable-news-ratings/
CNN is THE moderate one...and moderates are losers these days.
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But why
https://www.google.com/amp/amp.dailycaller.com/2017/06/01/cnn-cant-crack-top-10-in-cable-news-ratings/
CNN is THE moderate one...and moderates are losers these days.
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You crack me up
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I was heading for global cooling must be happening, since we know global warming couldn't have anything to do with this.
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Global warming is causing all of this! As the polar ice caps melt, the storms will get worse. Just make sure you have emergency supplies and ammo! A tin foil hat will help thwart the mirco waves!
Two things I always remember...
It always looks darkest right before it goes pitch black !
and
Attitude is the difference between ordeal and adventure.
We need a "like" button. I like this ^^^
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There is one to the top right of the post on the web version.
Yea, I think I'be only used the web version once. I'm always on Tapatalk.
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I have friends that have lost power and have trees down this morning in Jacksonville, FL. Another friend NE of Tampa came through fine with no power loss. Horses and farm intact. Go figure. Was a Ghost town in Atlanta this morning for my commute to Austell. GA Power has trucks staged at GSU/Turner Stadium Gold Lot. I am not sure how much of an event this will be for Atlanta. I drove the Jeep today.
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We're watching it on CNN... they have a reporter in naples and have been live throughout the whole thing, including him standing in the eye. Pretty cool to watch. Waiting for the surge to come in.
CNN?
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Usually fox has the best coverage, but when we were flipping channels yesterday afternoon all they had was ol' what's his face in the studio blabbing away. CNN actually had on scene stuff, and they never mentioned Trump, global warming/cooling/climate change, or anything else political. I did fall asleep, and also quit watching when A.C. got on the air, but it was interesting.
Slightly misleading, but they did put their 82 lb Asian anchor on briefly and made her stand in a puddle to make it look like the water was deeper than it was. After she was almost blown away, they put the adults back on the air
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But why
https://www.google.com/amp/amp.dailycaller.com/2017/06/01/cnn-cant-crack-top-10-in-cable-news-ratings/
Bc everything else as of late has been extremely political and obviously biased. We don't watch CNN, but yesterday from 1-5ish I felt they had the best coverage
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Been watching The Weather Channel while working at home today. Lots of Generac (http://www.generac.com/) commercials. Smart.
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You guys might like - https://www.ventusky.com
cool app. how accurate is this?